Welcome to the 35th installment of “Coronavirus Contextualized,” a recurring function wherein we discover among the numbers swirling round within the time of coronavirus.
By way of these tales, we hope to parse the numbers, together with confirmed circumstances of COVID-19, folks examined, variety of hospitalizations and deaths, and supply some context to them. You possibly can view the prior editions of “Coronavirus Contextualized” right here on our coronavirus web page.
These tales function a written roundup of the COVID-19 developments we stored our eyes on this week, with all graphs and charts residing completely on our COVID-19 information web page, the place they’re up to date a number of occasions a day with the most recent numbers.
We’re persevering with to take recommendations for what sort of information, graphs and developments you want to see analyzed in future variations of this story or included in a future replace of our information web page. Attain out to [email protected] with any suggestions.
Beneath, we check out the most recent COVID-19 developments as Nevada because the state continues its rollout of the vaccine and circumstances once more are rising after a short dip across the holidays.
Instances and check positivity
Within the three weeks since our final version of “Coronavirus Contextualized,” the common variety of new reported day by day COVID-19 circumstances decreased after which began to extend as soon as once more.
Three weeks in the past, the common variety of new COVID-19 circumstances reported every day was 2,515. It decreased the following week to 2,224 and decreased even additional the week after that to 1,787. Nonetheless, as of Thursday, that quantity had bounced again to 2,281.
The document seven-day common, 2,736, was set on Dec. 10. The earlier document from the summer time surge was 1,176 on July 20.
Instances have been rising since mid-September, when a low of 267 circumstances on common had been reported every day.
The scenario, nonetheless, is worse in Clark County than it’s in Washoe County, which was hit laborious this fall by COVID-19. Washoe’s document seven-day case common is 532, which it hit on Nov. 27. As of Thursday, its seven-day common was solely 235. Evaluate that to Clark County, which peaked at 1,948 on Dec. 9, dipped to 1,352 on Dec. 31, and is now again to 1,916 as of Thursday.
For the reason that starting of the pandemic in March, there have been 241,189 COVID-19 circumstances reported statewide. Greater than 1 / 4 of these circumstances, 70,091, have been identified within the final month, and 7 %, or 15,964 circumstances, have been reported within the final week.
One in 13 Nevadans has examined constructive for the virus for the reason that starting of the pandemic. Nevada ranks 19th within the nation for COVID-19 circumstances per capita, down from 17th three weeks in the past.
In the meantime, Nevada’s check positivity fee — which seems to be on the share of exams or folks coming again constructive out of the full examined — additionally briefly dipped earlier than beginning to once more enhance. As ordinary, we’ll take a look at two totally different strategies of calculating check positivity under, utilizing each particular person folks and a metric often known as testing encounters.
Beginning with the variety of new reported individuals who examined constructive for COVID-19 out of the full variety of new reported folks examined every day, the state’s seven-day common check positivity fee was about 38.Four % as of Thursday, down from a current excessive of 45.9 percent on Dec. 13. The newest low level, earlier than the surge this fall, was 9.2 % on Sept. 17.
One of many drawbacks, nonetheless, of check positivity utilizing particular person folks is that some persons are examined repeatedly. Somebody who examined unfavorable 4 occasions however examined constructive on their fifth time can be counted as a brand new constructive individual however not a brand new individual examined. (In different phrases, they might be counted within the numerator however not the denominator.) That’s why the check positivity charges calculated this fashion look so excessive.
One other method of check positivity, as we have now famous every week, is to look at check encounters, or the variety of particular person folks examined every day. This methodology of check positivity excludes duplicate samples collected the identical day however accounts for people who find themselves examined repeatedly on totally different days.
It isn’t attainable to independently calculate the check positivity fee primarily based on check encounters as a result of the state solely stories the variety of constructive circumstances, not the variety of constructive check encounters. Nonetheless, the state does present this quantity, calculated as a median over a 14-day interval with a seven-day lag. As of Wednesday, that quantity was 20.6 %, up from a current dip to 19.6 on Dec. 31 however down from a current excessive of 21.8 on Dec. 15. In September, earlier than circumstances began to extend, the check positivity fee was 6.2 %.
Whichever calculation you utilize to have a look at check positivity, the developments are typically the identical. Check positivity had been rising steadily since September, dipped a bit bit in the previous couple of weeks, and is as soon as once more going up.
For the reason that starting of the pandemic, greater than 1.2 million folks — about one in 2.5 Nevadans — have been examined for COVID-19, and there have been virtually 2.2 million particular person testing encounters.
Since vaccinations started in December, 39,761 folks have obtained their first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, in keeping with the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. In whole, Nevada has obtained 187,375 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
This week, the Southern Nevada Well being district reported that 21,081 COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in Clark County out of 70,050 whole doses obtained. The well being district was, as of this week, presently offering the COVID-19 vaccine to teams in “Tier 1” of the state’s vaccination plan, together with workers of smaller outpatient and residential well being amenities, in addition to long-term care facility workers, psychiatric and behavioral well being hospital workers, and laboratory workers.
The Washoe County Well being District, in the meantime, reported that it individually has administered 6,634 COVID-19 vaccines by means of its Level of Allotting, or POD, on the Reno-Sparks Livestock Occasions Heart as of Thursday. The county as an entire has obtained 20,760 doses of the vaccine, together with 8,370 doses allotted to the well being district and 12,390 doses to group companions, together with hospitals, emergency providers suppliers and hearth departments. Washoe County has stated it can begin administering vaccines to some Ok-12 personnel beginning on Saturday.
In Carson Metropolis, officers reported they’ve administered greater than 1,200 doses of the vaccine to well being care employees, pharmacists and emergency operations personnel. They stated that they plan to start distributing the vaccine to Tier 2 people, together with Ok-12, larger training and youngster care workers, beginning Monday.
Carson Metropolis Well being and Human Companies manages vaccination operations in what are often known as the Quad Counties — Carson Metropolis and Lyon, Douglas and Storey counties.
State officers have largely attributed the small numbers of vaccination numbers to lags related to reporting into the state’s vaccination database, often known as WebIZ.
Nevada hit a brand new document on Dec. 16, when 37.9 deaths had been being reported on common every day. Since then, the seven-day common has fluctuated however remained excessive. Thursday’s seven-day common was 30.1 deaths. The earlier document over the summer time was 20.7.
During the last seven days, 211 new COVID-19 deaths have been reported throughout the state, together with:
- 145 in Clark County
- 32 in Washoe County
- 17 in Carson Metropolis
- 5 every in Elko and Douglas counties
- 4 in Nye County
- 1 every in Lander, Lyon and Pershing counties
Within the final month, 1,021 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported statewide, almost a 3rd of the 3,349 whole COVID-19 deaths reported statewide for the reason that starting of the pandemic.
Churchill County nonetheless has the best variety of deaths per capita in Nevada, with 15.7 deaths per 10,000 residents, adopted by Lander County at 14.5, Carson Metropolis at 13.2, Clark County at 11.1 and Washoe County at 11.
Nevada ranks 21st within the nation for deaths per capita, up from 23rd two weeks in the past.
Nevada continues to see excessive ranges of COVID-19 hospitalizations, although hospitalizations have typically plateaued.
There have been 1,918 folks hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Wednesday, the final day for which information is offered, down from 1,975 three weeks in the past. Hospitalizations peaked at 2,025 on Dec. 13, dwarfing the document set over the summer time, 1,165.
“Nevada’s COVID-19 hospitalizations proceed to stage off on the peak of the curve,” the Nevada Hospital Affiliation wrote in a report this week. “This has been offering the hospital infrastructure a much-needed reprieve and has stored hospitals and ICUs from being overwhelmed all through the state.”
Nevada now has the second highest variety of folks hospitalized with COVID-19 per capita at 62.3 per 100,000, behind Arizona at 67 and forward of Alabama at 60.5 and California at 57.8.
Nevada hospitals are presently staffing 6,882 beds, greater than the 6,660 they’re usually licensed to function, to maintain up with the demand. As of Wednesday, 83 % of staffed hospital beds and 74 % of ICU beds had been occupied. These numbers had been 85 % and 81 %, respectively, in Southern Nevada and 80 % and 54 %, respectively, in Northern Nevada.
“The northern space of the state continues to see important declines in required hospitalizations, intensive care use, and obligatory mechanical ventilator necessities,” the hospital affiliation wrote.”
County by county
Sixteen of the state’s 17 counties proceed to fulfill the state’s standards to be flagged as vulnerable to elevated unfold of COVID-19. Storey County stays the one exception.
Counties are thought of in danger for elevated unfold of COVID-19 in the event that they meet two of the next three metrics:
- The common variety of exams per day per 100,000, calculated over a 14-day interval. If this quantity is lower than 100, a county may very well be thought of in danger.
- The case fee per 100,000, calculated by taking the variety of circumstances identified and reported over a 30-day interval. If this quantity is larger than 200, a county may very well be thought of in danger.
- The case fee per 100,000 and the check positivity fee, calculated over a 14-day interval with a seven-day lag. If the case fee is larger than 50 and the check positivity fee is larger than 8.zero %, a county may very well be thought of in danger.
Pershing County continues to have the best case fee within the state at 9,796 circumstances per 100,000 residents during the last 30 days, adopted by White Pine County at 2,494 and Clark County at 2,094.
A spokeswoman for the Division of Well being and Human Companies stated in an e-mail on Monday that jail COVID-19 circumstances are driving the bulk — greater than 85 % — of the circumstances in Pershing County at the moment.
A state dashboard exhibits that 366 of the 840 whole circumstances in Pershing County for the reason that starting of the pandemic have been recognized by means of the Division of Corrections. That features 291 inmates and 75 workers members.