Welcome to the 31st installment of “Coronavirus Contextualized,” a recurring characteristic during which we discover a few of the numbers swirling round within the time of coronavirus.
By way of these tales, we hope to parse the numbers, together with confirmed instances of COVID-19, folks examined, variety of hospitalizations and deaths, and supply some context to them. You possibly can view the prior editions of “Coronavirus Contextualized” right here on our coronavirus web page.
These tales function a written roundup of the COVID-19 traits we stored our eyes on this week, with all graphs and charts residing completely on our COVID-19 knowledge web page, the place they’re up to date a number of instances a day with the newest numbers.
We’re persevering with to take strategies for what sort of knowledge, graphs and traits you wish to see analyzed in future variations of this story or included in a future replace of our knowledge web page. Attain out to [email protected] with any suggestions.
Under, we check out a few of the newest COVID-19 traits with solely 4 days left for Nevada to enhance its coronavirus numbers or face extra mitigation measures. Final week, Gov. Steve Sisolak urged Nevadans to voluntarily keep house to restrict the unfold of the virus beneath what he referred to as “Keep at Dwelling 2.0.”
Instances and check positivity
COVID-19 continues to unfold uncontrolled throughout the state of Nevada, reaching new document case numbers day after day.
A mean of 1,833 new COVID-19 instances have been reported every day during the last seven days, as of Thursday, setting a brand new document. The earlier document from the summer time, the final time coronavirus instances surged, was 1,176.
Thursday’s seven-day common additionally represents important progress since final week, when the seven-day common was 1,380. The week earlier than that it was 986. Earlier than instances began rising in mid-September, a mean of 267 instances have been reported every day.
For the reason that starting of the pandemic in March, there have been 128,246 instances reported statewide. That features 12,829 new instances reported during the last seven days, about 10 % of the full instances reported in the course of the pandemic.
Julia Peek, deputy administrator of the Division of Public and Behavioral Well being, mentioned at a gathering of the COVID-19 Mitigation and Administration Activity Power on Thursday that about 75 % of instances will not be linked to a different optimistic case, that means they’re buying the virus from basic group unfold.
One in 24 Nevadans has examined optimistic for the virus because the starting of the pandemic. Nevada ranks 22nd within the nation for COVID-19 instances per capita, down from 18th final week. Kyra Morgan, state biostatistician, famous on the job drive assembly that, regionally, Nevada is outpacing each California and Arizona in instances per 100,000 residents.
“Nevada is now experiencing will increase in all three of these — instances, hospitalizations and checks, as effectively,” Morgan mentioned.
Nevada’s check positivity fee — which appears on the share of checks or folks coming again optimistic out of the full examined — additionally continues to extend. As standard, we’ll have a look at two completely different strategies of calculating check positivity beneath, utilizing each particular person folks and a metric generally known as testing encounters.
Beginning with the variety of new reported individuals who examined optimistic for COVID-19 out of the full variety of new reported folks examined every day, the state’s seven-day common check positivity fee was about 35.Four % as of Thursday, up from a current low of 9.2 % on Sept. 17.
Nevertheless, there are some drawbacks to taking a look at check positivity utilizing particular person folks since some individuals are examined repeatedly. As an illustration, somebody who examined unfavorable 4 instances however examined optimistic on their fifth time could be counted as a brand new optimistic particular person however not a brand new particular person examined. (In different phrases, they’d be counted within the numerator however not the denominator.)
Moreover, somebody might obtain a speedy antigen check that comes again unfavorable the identical day, solely to have a optimistic molecular PCR check, which is extra correct in figuring out whether or not somebody is unfavorable for COVID-19, come again optimistic a number of days later. In that occasion, the person could be counted as a brand new particular person examined the day of their first, unfavorable check however a optimistic a number of days later.
One other manner of taking a look at check positivity, as we now have famous every week, is to look at check encounters, or the variety of particular person folks examined every day. This technique of taking a look at check positivity excludes duplicate samples collected the identical day however accounts for people who find themselves examined repeatedly on completely different days.
It isn’t doable to independently calculate the check positivity fee primarily based on check encounters as a result of the state solely stories the variety of optimistic instances, not the variety of optimistic check encounters. Nevertheless, the state does present this quantity, calculated as a mean over a 14-day interval with a seven-day lag. As of Wednesday, that quantity was 15.6 %, persevering with to climb from a current low of 6.Three % on Sept. 23.
Whichever calculation you utilize to have a look at check positivity, the development is similar: It continues to extend.
A complete of 903,173 folks — or about one in 3.Four Nevadans — have been examined for COVID-19 and there have been 1,471,764 particular person testing encounters since March.
COVID-19 deaths additionally proceed to extend, although they don’t seem to be wherever close to the document excessive from the summer time.
As of Thursday, the typical variety of new deaths every day during the last seven days was 11.1, up from a current low of 4.1 on Oct. 27. On the excessive level this summer time, on Aug. 20, the seven-day common was 20.7 new deaths every day.
It’s necessary to notice, nonetheless, that officers say that traits in deaths sometimes lag traits in instances by about 5 weeks, that means that the numerous surge in instances being skilled now wouldn’t be mirrored within the dying knowledge for a number of weeks.
During the last seven days, 78 new COVID-19 deaths have been reported throughout the state, together with 54 in Clark County, 15 in Washoe County, 4 in Churchill, 4 in Nye and one in Elko. There have been 54 new COVID-19 deaths reported within the seven-day interval earlier than that.
A complete of 1,958 COVID-19 deaths has been reported statewide since March. Nevada ranks 25th within the nation for deaths per capita, down from 24th final week.
COVID-19 hospitalizations hit a brand new document on Tuesday and proceed to rise.
There have been 1,288 folks hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Wednesday, the final day for which knowledge is offered, up from a current low of 417 on Sept. 12. On the peak over the summer time, 1,165 folks have been hospitalized with COVID-19 on July 31.
County-level knowledge proceed to point out how a lot worse the state of affairs is in Washoe County in comparison with Clark County. There are presently 284 COVID-19 hospitalizations in Washoe County, greater than double the numbers county hospitals have been seeing over the summer time, whereas Clark County, at 918 hospitalizations, nonetheless has but to return to its peak.
As of Wednesday, 82 percent of licensed hospital beds and 68 % of ICU beds statewide have been occupied. These numbers have been 88 % and 70 %, respectively, in Southern Nevada and 72 % and 62 %, respectively, in Northern Nevada.
Nevertheless, Northern Nevada is just capable of employees 1,454 of its 1,725 licensed beds, which makes the proportion of staffed beds occupied really 85 %. Southern Nevada, in the meantime, is staffing greater than its variety of licensed beds — a call made by hospitals to reply to elevated demand — driving its share of staffed beds right down to 81 %.
The Nevada Hospital Affiliation, Nevada Rural Hospital Companions and the Nevada State Medical Affiliation, in a joint assertion, urged folks to stay vigilant towards COVID-19.
“Throughout this time of yr, hospitals expertise an inflow of sufferers together with these experiencing coronary heart assault, stroke, diabetes and respiratory infections, to call just a few. Add to that COVID-19 sufferers who’re extremely contagious and wish a special sort of care,” they wrote. “Everybody has an obligation to behave responsibly to restrict the unfold of an infection so we don’t overwhelm our well being care system.”
They urged folks to withstand the urge to get “complacent” in the course of the vacation season and take the “essential steps” to stop the unfold of the virus.
“In current weeks, we now have seen COVID-19 instances and hospitalizations trending upwards nationwide,” they wrote. “If the development continues in Nevada, it’ll place a better pressure on hospital workforce members together with docs, nurses, therapists and custodians, and meals service and help employees who’ve bravely labored to assist sufferers.”
County by county
Whereas Clark County solely this week surpassed its earlier peak from the summer time, different counties, together with Washoe County, that weren’t hit fairly as exhausting over the summer time have lengthy since surpassed their earlier information.
Washoe County’s peak seven-day case common was 98 on July 30. It’s now 390.
Carson Metropolis’s earlier peak was 6.3 on Aug. 13. It’s now 74.4
Elko County’s summer time peak was 14.7 on July 15. It’s now 33.9.
Clark County’s prior peak was 1,073 on July 20. It’s now 1,242.
In whole, 14 of the state’s 17 counties presently meet the state’s standards to be flagged as susceptible to elevated unfold of COVID-19 as of Thursday, up from 12 final week.
Counties are thought-about in danger for elevated unfold of COVID-19 in the event that they meet two of the next three metrics:
- The common variety of checks per day per 100,000, calculated over a 14-day interval. If this quantity is lower than 100, a county may very well be thought-about in danger.
- The case fee per 100,000, calculated by taking the variety of instances identified and reported over a 30-day interval. If this quantity is larger than 200, a county may very well be thought-about in danger.
- The case fee per 100,000 and the check positivity fee, calculated over a 14-day interval with a seven-day lag. If the case fee is larger than 50 and the check positivity fee is larger than 8.Zero %, a county may very well be thought-about in danger.
Carson Metropolis continues to have the best case fee per capita, at 2,234 instances per 100,000 during the last 30 days — pushed largely by an outbreak at Heat Springs Correctional Heart, adopted by Churchill County at 1,608, Washoe County at 1,542, Elko County at 1,184 and White Pine County at 1,001. The opposite at-risk counties are Clark, Douglas, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon and Nye.
Nye County has the best check positivity fee at 24.9 %, adopted by Esmeralda County at 23.1 %, Lyon County at 20.Four % and Elko County at 20.Three %.