Welcome to the 30th installment of “Coronavirus Contextualized,” a recurring function during which we discover among the numbers swirling round within the time of coronavirus.

By these tales, we hope to parse the numbers, together with confirmed circumstances of COVID-19, individuals examined, variety of hospitalizations and deaths, and supply some context to them. You’ll be able to view the prior editions of “Coronavirus Contextualized” right here.

These tales function a written roundup of the COVID-19 tendencies we stored our eyes on this week, with all graphs and charts dwelling completely on our COVID-19 knowledge web page, the place they’re up to date a number of occasions a day with the most recent numbers. 

We’re persevering with to take ideas for what sort of knowledge, graphs and tendencies you wish to see analyzed in future variations of this story or included in a future replace of our knowledge web page. Attain out to [email protected] with any suggestions.

Under, we check out among the newest COVID-19 tendencies in Nevada as Gov. Steve Sisolak this week urged Nevadans to voluntarily keep dwelling to stem the rising tide of coronavirus circumstances beneath what he is calling “Keep at House 2.0.” The governor has stated that if COVID-19 numbers don’t enhance in two weeks, he will probably be compelled to impose new restrictions.

“I do not know what restrictions we’ll need to put in place, however they are going to be extreme, they are going to be arduous, and they are going to be issues that individuals aren’t going to wish to do and I get that, however we do not have to do any of that,” Sisolak stated at a press convention on Tuesday. “I do not wish to deal with what we’ll do if this does not work, as a result of I wish to imagine, I do imagine, this may work.”

Instances and check positivity

COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire throughout the state of Nevada, setting data day after day for brand spanking new reported coronavirus circumstances.

A document 1,379 new COVID-19 circumstances have been reported on common every day over the past seven days as of Thursday. The earlier document from the summer time, when coronavirus circumstances surged, was 1,176 on July 20. The state surpassed that document on Saturday, when it hit a seven-day common of 1,197, and has continued to beat its personal new data virtually every single day since.

“Now we have seen that going by means of the steps that we have gone by means of thus far to open up the financial system, we shouldn’t have a way of management over COVID at present in our communities, which was our aim,” state biostatistician Kyra Moran stated at a gathering of the state’s COVID-19 Mitigation and Administration Job Pressure on Thursday. “Our aim was to try this and slowly and steadily in a method that we couldn’t get again to the place we have been, and the rationale I simply wished to make a remark now could be as a result of at this level we’re again the place we have been, and we shouldn’t have management over COVID.”

Thursday’s seven-day common additionally demonstrates vital case progress since final week, when the seven-day common was 986. It was 833 the week earlier than that. On the latest low level in mid-September, earlier than circumstances began rising, a mean of 267 circumstances have been reported every day.

Because the starting of the pandemic in March, there have been 115,410 COVID-19 circumstances reported statewide. That features 9,651 new circumstances reported over the past seven days, about Eight p.c of the whole circumstances reported throughout the pandemic. On the peak this summer time in mid-July, 8,184 new circumstances have been reported in a seven-day interval, together with 1,451 in a single day, data which have now each been exceeded throughout this newest case surge.

One in 27 Nevadans has examined constructive for the virus because the starting of the pandemic. Nevada ranks 18th within the nation for COVID-19 circumstances per capita, unchanged from final week.

Nevada’s check positivity fee — which seems to be on the share of checks or individuals coming again constructive out of the whole examined — additionally continues to extend. Once more, we’ll take a look at two completely different strategies of calculating check positivity under, utilizing each particular person individuals and a metric generally known as testing encounters.

Beginning with the variety of new reported individuals who examined constructive for COVID-19 out of the whole variety of new reported individuals examined every day, the state’s seven-day common check positivity fee was about 26.Eight p.c as of Thursday, up from a latest low of 9.2 p.c on Sept. 17. 

Nevertheless, there are some drawbacks to taking a look at check positivity utilizing particular person individuals since some persons are examined repeatedly. For example, somebody who examined unfavorable 4 occasions however examined constructive on their fifth time can be counted as a brand new constructive particular person however not a brand new particular person examined. (In different phrases, they’d be counted within the numerator however not the denominator.)

Moreover, somebody could obtain a fast antigen check that comes again unfavorable the identical day, solely to have a constructive molecular PCR check, which is extra correct in figuring out whether or not somebody is unfavorable for COVID-19, come again constructive a number of days later. In that occasion, the person can be counted as a brand new particular person examined the day of their first, unfavorable check however a constructive a number of days later.

One other method of taking a look at check positivity, as we’ve got famous every week, is to look at check encounters, or the variety of particular person individuals examined every day. This technique of taking a look at check positivity excludes duplicate samples collected the identical day however accounts for people who find themselves examined repeatedly on completely different days.

It isn’t potential to independently calculate the check positivity fee primarily based on check encounters as a result of the state solely stories the variety of constructive circumstances, not the variety of constructive check encounters. Nevertheless, the state does present this quantity, calculated as a mean over a 14-day interval with a seven-day lag. As of Wednesday, that quantity was 14.Three p.c, up from a latest low of 6.5 p.c on Sept. 19.

Whichever calculation you utilize to take a look at check positivity, the pattern is identical: Take a look at positivity continues to extend.

A complete of 865,363 individuals — or about one in 3.6 Nevadans have been examined for COVID-19 and there have been 1,375,669 particular person testing encounters since March. 

Deaths

COVID-19 deaths have been up, although fluctuating, over the past week. As of Thursday, the typical variety of new deaths every day over the past seven days was 7.7, up from a latest low of 4.1 on Oct. 27. On the excessive level this summer time, on Aug. 20, the seven-day common was 20.7 new deaths every day.

It’s necessary to notice, nevertheless, that officers say that tendencies in deaths sometimes lag tendencies in circumstances by about 5 weeks, which means that the numerous surge in circumstances being skilled now wouldn’t be mirrored within the demise knowledge for a number of weeks.

During the last seven days, 54 new COVID-19 deaths have been reported throughout the state, together with 42 in Clark County, eight in Washoe County and one every in Carson Metropolis, Elko County, Mineral County and Nye County. The demise in Mineral was the county’s first.

A complete of 1,880 COVID-19 deaths has been reported statewide since March. Nevada ranks 24th within the nation for deaths per capita, down from 23rd final week.

Hospitalizations

COVID-19 hospitalizations proceed to be on the rise, although probably the most vital surge in hospitalizations is going on in Washoe County the place hospitals are making ready for a rise in sufferers. At Renown Regional Medical Heart in Reno, some sufferers are, as of Thursday, being handled in an alternate care website arrange within the hospital’s parking storage, which might accommodate as much as 1,600 beds.

“We’re unable to maintain tempo with the virus in the way in which it is at present presenting itself in our neighborhood,” Renown Well being CEO Tony Slonim stated on the press convention with Sisolak this week.

The variety of individuals hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 exceeded 900 this week for the primary time since mid-August. There have been 941 individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Wednesday, the final day for which knowledge is out there, up from a latest low of 417 on Sept. 12. On the peak over the summer time, 1,165 individuals have been hospitalized with COVID-19 on July 31.

County-level knowledge, nevertheless, present how a lot worse the scenario is in Washoe County in comparison with Clark County. There are at present 192 COVID-19 hospitalizations in Washoe County, about double the numbers county hospitals noticed over the summer time, whereas Clark County, at 673 hospitalizations, hasn’t but returned to its peak.

As of Wednesday, 80 percent of licensed hospital beds and 65 p.c of ICU beds statewide have been occupied. These numbers have been 85 p.c and 66 p.c, respectively, in Southern Nevada and 71 p.c and 67 p.c, respectively, in Northern Nevada. 

Nevertheless, Washoe County is just capable of workers 1,404 of its 1,686 licensed beds, which makes the proportion of staffed beds occupied really 86 p.c. Clark County, in the meantime, is staffing greater than its variety of licensed beds — a call made by hospitals to answer elevated demand — driving its share of staffed beds right down to 78 p.c.

County by county

Whereas Clark County was hit arduous by COVID-19 over the summer time and has not reached its earlier peak, many counties throughout Nevada are day over day hitting document numbers of recent circumstances, together with Washoe County, Carson Metropolis and Elko County.

For example, Washoe County’s peak seven-day case common was 98 on July 30. It’s now 356 as of Thursday. Clark County’s peak was 1,072 on July 20 and is a nonetheless excessive, however not fairly as excessive, 888 as of Thursday.

Carson Metropolis’s summer time peak was 6.3 on Aug. 13. Elko’s was 14.7 on July 15. As of Thursday, they’re now at 21.9 and 39.1, respectively.

In whole, 12 of the state’s 17 counties at present meet the state’s standards to be flagged as susceptible to elevated unfold of COVID-19 as of Thursday, up from 10 final week.

Counties are thought of in danger for elevated unfold of COVID-19 in the event that they meet two of the next three metrics:

  • The common variety of checks per day per 100,000, calculated over a 14-day interval. If this quantity is lower than 100, a county could possibly be thought of in danger.
  • The case fee per 100,000, calculated by taking the variety of circumstances identified and reported over a 30-day interval. If this quantity is bigger than 200, a county could possibly be thought of in danger.
  • The case fee per 100,000 and the check positivity fee, calculated over a 14-day interval with a seven-day lag. If the case fee is bigger than 50 and the check positivity fee is bigger than 8.Zero p.c, a county could possibly be thought of in danger.

Of these 12 counties, Carson Metropolis continues to have the best case fee per capita, at 1,293 circumstances per 100,000 over the past 30 days, adopted by Washoe County at 1,211, Churchill County at 1,152, Elko County at 1,015, and Clark County at 779. The opposite at-risk counties are Douglas, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon and Nye.

Lincoln County continues to have the best check positivity fee by far, 23.Eight p.c, adopted by Nye County at 19.7 p.c and Carson Metropolis at 16.7 p.c.