Kicking off Week 9, the Packers (5-2) journey to quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ dwelling state to tackle the 49ers (4-4) on Thursday Night time Soccer. The Packers are 7.5-point street favorites (-350 ML), and the over/underneath is listed at 48.5.
Each these groups have suffered from harm points and COVID-19 issues, so bettors will need to pay shut consideration to the energetic/inactive record later within the day. For now, the BetQL NFL Finest Guess Mannequin closely favors the 49ers on the first-half unfold (+4), placing a five-star ranking on the house crew protecting. Learn on to see our full betting preview, evaluation, prediction, and finest bets for this prime-time NFC showdown.
All knowledge introduced is as of Thursday afternoon. You’ll be able to monitor all NFL line motion on BetQL’s Line Motion Dashboard.
Accidents have additionally been a year-long impediment for Inexperienced Bay. Fourth-year stud Aaron Jones, a dual-threat again who scored seven TDs in Inexperienced Bay’s first 5 video games (and led the league with 16 floor/19 scrimmage TDs final season), has missed the final two video games with a calf harm. His backup, Jamaal Williams, had been filling in admirably however now has landed on the COVID-19 record because of his shut contact with rookie again AJ Dillon, who examined constructive for the virus on Monday. Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams, who will deal with the RB touches if Jones as soon as once more stays sidelined, will attain profession highs in touches tonight.
The Packers’ passing recreation has taken some hits, too. Perennial Professional Bowl receiver Davante Adams, tied for the NFL lead with seven TD catches, missed two video games earlier within the season. Adams’ counterpart, third-year receiver Allen Lazard, has been sidelined for Inexperienced Bay’s previous 4 video games after having core muscle surgical procedure (if activated by Four p.m. ET, Lazard may play tonight). And Rodgers’ offensive line, which has been so essential to defending him and opening operating lanes within the Packers’ wins, has been banged up and shuffled round all season.
Rodgers and Adams have saved the offensive motor operating for Inexperienced Bay with somewhat assist from shock breakout tight finish Robert Tonyan. Rodgers has been as sharp as ever, with a 65.9 p.c completion price and 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio. He additionally averages 278.three passing yards per recreation, which is the third finest in his profession. Adams has been good for 100.Four of these yards per recreation, catching 74.1 p.c of his targets. Tonyan, who has caught a staggering 85.2 p.c of his appears, averages 13.Four yards per catch and 44.1 receiving yards per recreation.
Inexperienced Bay wants to stay explosive offensively as a result of its protection has been underwhelming all season. The Packers rank 20th in factors allowed (187), and 30th in takeaways (4 all season). The unit sits in the course of the pack in passing touchdowns allowed (12) however surrenders the fifth-most speeding touchdowns (10). It’s uncanny that Rodgers has solely two interceptions and a fumble via seven video games, but Inexperienced Bay’s turnover margin on the season is just plus-one. Fortunately for Lafleur and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, the Packers’ harm woes pale compared to the 49ers’ unfathomably-long record of big-name inactives.
Franchise QB Jimmy Garoppolo highlights the Niners’ dreaded harm record after he aggravated the ankle harm that derailed him for 2 video games earlier within the season. Formally listed as a high-ankle sprain, Jimmy G has been positioned on the IR and can be changed by backup Nick Mullens. Mullens shined in San Fran’s 36-9 Week three drubbing of the Giants, throwing for 343 yards and a landing. He additionally seemed fairly good final week in a 37-27 loss to the Seahawks.
However the third-year QB can be with out most of San Francisco’s prime talent gamers. Large-playmaking receiver Deebo Samuel, who missed the primary 4 video games of the season, has been sidelined with a hamstring harm because the Niners’ Week 7 win over New England. All-Professional tight finish George Kittle landed on the IR with a fractured bone in his foot final week after coming down with a contested go from Mullens. Rookie standout receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fourth-year receiver Kendrick Bourne have each been positioned on the COVID-19 record. Kittle had ranked No. 2 (to solely the Chiefs Travis Kelce) in receiving yards by a good finish with 474. Aiyuk and Bourne have mixed for 53 catches, 723 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns this season.
San Francisco will even have hassle leaning on the run, which very often serves as its offensive M.O. The 49ers lead the league in speeding TDs with 14, however the lack of Kittle means the lack of certainly one of its finest run-blockers. Even worse, the 49ers are lacking a number of key operating backs, together with starter and 2019 breakout Raheem Mostert. The dynamic again had 952 scrimmage yards and 10 whole TDs final season and had 160 yards and three TDs in opposition to these Packers within the NFC Championship recreation. Mostert was averaging 5.9 yards per carry and catching 91.7 p.c of his targets when he noticed the sphere this 12 months, however a high-ankle sprain in Week 6 has landed him on IR. Backup Tevin Coleman, who returned from IR final week after lacking 5 video games, promptly injured his knee and can miss time as soon as once more. That leaves rookie JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon, who’ve every proven moments of brilliance this season however can’t match Mostert and Colemans’ talents.
If San Francisco offers the Packers hassle this night, it will likely be due to its robust protection. Regardless of dropping All-Professional defensive lineman Nick Bosa and future Corridor-of-Fame cornerback Richard Sherman, the Niners stay an upper-echelon defensive unit. They rank within the prime 4 within the NFL in passing yards allowed (1,672, or 209 per recreation) and prime 10 in speeding yards allowed (845). They’ve surrendered the third-fewest speeding TDs within the league (5) regardless of not having a bye week but. They’ve additionally yielded the sixth-fewest whole yards and rank 10th in factors allowed.
However will this protection proceed to play impressed soccer regardless of so many current punches to the proverbial intestine? In a somewhat-telling transfer, San Francisco traded linebacker Kwon Alexander to the Saints earlier this week. Maybe the 49ers are packing it up and accepting their destiny because the cellar-dweller of the NFC West and specializing in releasing up cap house for subsequent season. Solely time will inform. For now, it’s value noting that almost each certainly one of their prime gamers on both aspect of the ball are both inactive or banged up. Tread calmly, particularly on a brief week.
Take a second to catch your breath after studying about all these points. Now contemplate that, because the tenures of San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, the 49ers are 5-13 in opposition to groups that common 260 or extra passing yards per recreation. They’re 4-11 in opposition to groups averaging 375 whole yards. The Packers common 265.7 passing yards and 394.5 whole yards per recreation, they usually rank third within the NFL in factors (219).
Whereas Inexperienced Bay has suffered some setbacks, the 49ers have basically misplaced the vast majority of their prime influence gamers. With 4 days between video games, a bunch of backups on offense, and a brutal matchup, San Francisco could have hassle protecting +7.5, by no means thoughts mounting an upset.
The BetQL Finest Guess Mannequin does just like the Niners to cowl the first-half unfold +4, placing five-star confidence on an implied halftime rating of round 13-10. The Mannequin additionally initiatives a five-star ranking on the Niners protecting the full-game unfold of +7.5. If Aaron Jones doesn’t play for the Packers, by all means wager the ‘canine. But when Jones and Allen Lazard return, it’s not advisable to wager in opposition to the Packers until you purchase additional factors. I’m leaning 30-20 if Inexperienced Bay has Jones and Lazard, 27-23 if they continue to be inactive.
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