Kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight, the Bears (5-3) host the Vikings (3-5) at Soldier Subject for an NFC conflict on Monday Evening Soccer. The Vikings are -Three street favorites (-185 ML), and the over/below (which opened at 45.5) has settled at 43.5.
This would be the 119th matchup between the division rivals and their first assembly in 2020. The Vikings lead this historic sequence 60-56-2 and will very nicely push their all-time head-to-head file to 5 video games above .500 this night. Regardless of having two fewer wins than Chicago, the Vikings have been transferring up whereas the Bears transfer down. Minnesota has received two video games in a row and three of its previous 5, whereas Chicago has dropped its previous three video games after beginning 5-1.
BetQL has knowledgeable evaluation, high tendencies, up-to-the-minute line actions, and full sport previews for this and each sport of the NFL season. Our NFL Greatest Wager Mannequin runs simulations for every sport, arriving at detailed consequence projections and itemizing its greatest bets. We are able to let you know that the Mannequin likes the ultimate rating to equal OVER 43.5 factors, projecting the whole at nearer to 45 factors. Proceed studying for our complete betting preview, and to seek out out our full array of picks for this important NFC conflict.
Vikings-Bears Betting Preview
The Vikings began the season on a really rocky street, shedding their first three video games and 5 of their first six. However they’ve appeared nice the previous two weeks, successful key divisional matchups towards Inexperienced Bay and Detroit. A win tonight would vault Minnesota out of the basement of the NFC North, leapfrogging the Lions and pushing to inside three video games of the division-leading Packers.
The primary catalyst of the Vikings’ latest success has been their operating again, Dalvin Prepare dinner. Regardless of lacking one sport to a groin damage and Minnesota already having its bye week, Prepare dinner was the main rusher within the league going into this week with 858 yards.
Prepare dinner leads the NFL in speeding touchdowns (12) and total touchdowns (13), and his 84 factors scored leads the league (the 21 gamers following him are kickers). There are eight groups which have performed both eight or 9 video games and nonetheless have fewer speeding yards than Prepare dinner, who has performed six-and-a-half video games. All however three NFL groups have fewer speeding touchdowns than him.
Lengthy story brief, this offense runs by Prepare dinner. That’s to not say the Vikings don’t produce other weapons, and Prepare dinner helps create area for them by forcing defenses to give attention to him. Veteran wideout Adam Thielen has had a formidable bounce-back season with 480 yards and 7 touchdowns. Rookie Justin Jefferson has been arguably the perfect receiver from the 2020 NFL Draft, tallying 627 yards and three scores and catching 77.Three p.c of his targets.
Inevitably, Kirk Cousins needs to be the one to tie all of it collectively. Within the Vikings’ three wins, the veteran QB has 5 complete TDs, zero interceptions, a 135.63 common QB score, and a mean of 11.41 yards per cross try. Of their 5 losses, he has 10 TDs, 10 interceptions, an 82.Eight QB score, and a mean of seven.9 yards per cross try.
Throughout Minnesota’s two-game successful streak, Cousins has loved his greatest two video games of the season rating-wise, in addition to his highest common adjusted yards gained per cross try. It’s additionally the primary time all season he has averted throwing an INT two video games in a row, and his offensive line has allowed him to get sacked solely as soon as in every of the previous three contests. In fact, Cousins’ Monday Evening Soccer struggles are nicely documented. He is 0-9 on Monday evening, and he’s additionally 8-32 towards successful groups all through his profession. He’s additionally misplaced all three of his begins towards the Bears whereas with Minnesota.
Minnesota’s protection stays an enormous query mark, too. The Vikings’ protection has given up 412.9 complete yards per sport this season, the fourth most within the NFL. Solely Atlanta and Seattle have surrendered extra air yards per sport than Minnesota’s 287.9, and the Vikings’ 2.Four passing touchdowns allowed per sport ties Atlanta and New Orleans for lifeless final. Additionally of be aware is that the Vikings have allowed 290 or extra passing yards in six of their eight video games this season
The Vikings’ run protection has been just a little higher, a minimum of within the pink zone. They do permit 125 speeding yards per sport, which ranks 20th within the league, however they give up simply 0.6 speeding scores per sport, which is tied for greatest within the league. Prime linebackers Eric Kendricks and Eric Wilson have been the guts of this protection, with Wilson stepping up huge time since Anthony Barr went down with a season-ending torn pectoral muscle early on.
The Bears began the season scorching scorching, with their stifling protection main the way in which to a 5-1 file regardless of a Week Three quarterback change. The transfer from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles, Foles’ subsequent comeback rally over the Falcons, and the Bears’ time atop the division all appear to be distant recollections to Chicago followers. The Bears have dropped their previous three video games, getting outscored 74-50 within the course of.
Foles has loved good chemistry with stud wideout Allen Robinson, who collected 712 yards and three touchdowns within the first half of the season. However A-Rob hasn’t had a lot assist in the manufacturing division. Anthony Miller and rookie Darnell Mooney have had moments right here and there, however nothing constant. Veteran dual-threat again Tarik Cohen suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late September, and middling lead-back David Montgomery will miss tonight’s sport resulting from a concussion sustained final week.
Translation: Issues maintain going from unhealthy to worse for this offense. Chicago ranks 31st in each third-down conversion share (32.3) and red-zone landing share (50). Happily for Chicago, its protection ranks first in each of these classes. Nevertheless, regression was imminent for the Bears as they started taking part in higher groups. In addition to the Buccaneers, who the Bears beat by one level in October, the entire groups Chicago has defeated have had shedding data (13-25 mixed).
The Rams, Saints, and Titans lately uncovered Chicago’s offensive struggles and managed to maneuver the ball sufficient on the Bears’ powerful protection to prevail. It’s unlucky to see a protection work so laborious for the whole lot of every sport simply to be let down by its inconsistent offense repeatedly. All too typically, Foles drives all the way in which down the sector, simply to show the ball over or pressure coach Matt Nagy to accept a area purpose.
Chicago ranks 29th in each factors and complete yards and 27th in first downs. The Bears have the fifth-most offensive interceptions (10) and the fourth-lowest web yards per cross try common (5.4). They rank lifeless final in each speeding yards (741) and speeding TDs (2). Their operating again opponent this week, the aforementioned Prepare dinner, has 117 extra speeding yards and 10 extra speeding TDs than your complete Chicago roster.
The woeful inadequacies of the Bears offense shine an excellent brighter highlight on simply how dominant Chicago’s protection has been this season. They’ve allowed the fewest passing touchdowns within the league (10), and the sixth-fewest speeding scores (six). They permit the third-shortest common drive size, and the fourth-fewest factors per drive. And regardless of Chicago’s offense scoring the fourth-fewest factors within the league (178 in eight video games), its protection has solely allowed 12 complete factors extra on the season (190, seventh-best).
As dynamic as it’s, Nagy and his offense are nonetheless asking this defensive unit to do far an excessive amount of. With a horrendous operating sport and Foles continually below stress — he has been sacked 12 occasions and hit 25 occasions over the previous three video games — the offense both turns the ball over or goes three-and-out far too typically, ensuing within the protection seeing means an excessive amount of area time. Nagy, typically criticized for his erratic and inefficient play-calling, could possibly be on the new seat if this downward spiral continues.
Accidents and COVID-19 make issues even worse for the Bears. The absence of each Cohen and Montgomery will result in some variation of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, relatively-unknown again Ryan Nall, and veteran Lamar Miller splitting taking part in time within the backfield. Beginning heart Cody Whitehair will proceed to overlook time resulting from COVID-19, additional complicating the offensive line points ravaging this depth chart all season. Robinson (knee), beginning security Tashaun Gipson Sr. (foot), and stud linebacker Roquan Smith (again) are all questionable tonight however anticipated to play.
Minnesota is a brutal 3-14 towards the unfold in its previous 17 video games at Soldier Subject, and the Bears are 5-1 ATS of their previous six conferences with the Vikings. Chicago has additionally received the previous 4 head-to-head contests straight up. Nevertheless, Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its previous six video games, and Cousins has appeared to learn enormously from the heroics displayed by Prepare dinner. With Chicago wanting abysmal on offense, it’s laborious to guess towards the Vikings, who could lastly buck Cousins’ damaging Monday Evening Soccer tendencies and transfer up the NFC North rankings.
The BetQL Greatest Wager Mannequin places a three-star score on the Bears overlaying the plus-3 unfold, however it lists the Vikings because the odds-on favourite to win the moneyline. It likes the Bears to cowl on the half plus-2.5, however it doesn’t appear overly assured with any of the first-half strains. This might simply be an in depth sport during, and the projected totals and the over/below appear a bit too tight to advise taking a stab by hook or by crook. Go together with the red-hot Vikings to proceed streaking by their division, prevailing over the dominant protection of Chicago in a 24-23 nail-biter.
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