Nov. 10 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Eta stalled simply off the western tip of Cuba on Tuesday, the place it continued to pose flooding threats to southern Florida and Cuba.
AccuWeather meteorologists say Eta is exhibiting indicators of strengthening, and it might regain hurricane standing earlier than it makes a second landfall in the USA alongside the Gulf Coast later this week.
In its three p.m. CST advisory, the Nationwide Hurricane Middle stated the middle of the storm was situated 90 miles north of the western tip of Cuba and was shifting north at 7 mph. It had 60 mph most sustained winds.
The tropical storm was lashing the western a part of Cuba with heavy rain, gusty winds and tough surf. Rainfall quantities of two inches to four inches with an AccuWeather Native StormMax of eight inches are anticipated into Tuesday evening over western Cuba.
As a powerful tropical storm, Eta unloaded torrential rain — as much as almost 18 inches — in South Florida Sunday into Monday, inflicting widespread flooding of streets and low-lying areas within the Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., areas. The storm made its first U.S. landfall with 65-mph winds on Decrease Matecumbe Key on Sunday evening.
For Cuba, this was the second spherical of torrential rain from Eta, which lower by means of the central a part of the island throughout Saturday evening and early Sunday.
Satellite tv for pc photos on Tuesday confirmed potent thunderstorms erupting close to the middle of the storm. Due to that, forecasters stated the storm seemed to be overcoming dry air within the area, which they stated factors to additional strengthening of the system being possible.
Eta had weakened to a 50-mph tropical storm late Monday and remained in established order because it drifted southwestward over the Gulf of Mexico throughout Monday evening as dry air had encircled the storm and invaded its core. Nonetheless, most sustained winds had elevated to 60 mph early Tuesday, and extra strengthening is probably going into Wednesday.
“Eta ought to stay over very heat water and inside an atmosphere of low wind shear, each of which favor strengthening [through the middle of the week],” based on AccuWeather’s high hurricane knowledgeable, Dan Kottlowski.
“If the core circulation stays intact and if Eta can handle to divorce itself from the dry air on its periphery, it ought to proceed to accentuate,” Kottlowski defined. “In reality, it might attain hurricane depth for a brief time period earlier than the system encounters growing wind shear later this week.”
If sustained winds attain 74 mph or better, Eta can be upgraded again to a hurricane. A Class 1 hurricane has sustained winds starting from 74 mph to 95 mph.
Attributable to weak steering breezes, Eta can be a gradual mover because it continues to churn over Gulf waters.
“A non-tropical storm system shifting by means of the central United States and a westward extension of the Bermuda-Azores excessive will create a weak steering breeze that ought to information Eta slowly northward throughout the center and latter a part of this week,” Kottlowski stated.
The stronger Eta turns into and the longer it stays a powerful tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane, the extra possible its ahead movement can be managed by southwesterly upper-level winds, which might take it nearer to the west coast of Florida. On this case, the storm can be taller and lengthen increased into the ambiance, in comparison with a weak or shallow system.
“The projected advanced wind sample over the storm means that a rise in shear will trigger the storm to weaken and turn out to be extra shallow in nature over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and thus be extra beneath the affect of the lower-level winds across the western periphery of the Bermuda-Azores excessive strain space,” Kottlowski defined.
Based mostly on the anticipated weakening of Eta, AccuWeather’s present forecast has the system shifting northward towards the western Florida Panhandle this weekend as a weakening tropical storm or eventual tropical despair over land alongside the higher Gulf coast.
Some outer rain bands from Eta will graze the southern and western components of the Florida Peninsula over the subsequent couple of days, unleashing a further 1 inch to 2 inches of rainfall. “This could result in some localized flooding, particularly the place heavy rain has already fallen from Eta prior to now couple of days,” based on Kottlowski.
AccuWeather meteorologists predict that the largest menace Eta will pose to the USA because it makes a second landfall can be from heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Eta might soak areas that may first decide up rainfall from a non-tropical storm system that may faucet into tropical moisture. That climate maker will unload drenching rain from northern Florida to southern Maine on Wednesday into Thursday and will go away the bottom saturated on this hall.
Rain straight related to Eta is forecast to unfold northward by this weekend into components of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and maybe a part of Alabama. Nonetheless, rainfall quantities in these areas of the U.S. can be extremely depending on Eta’s energy.
“If Eta turns into a weak storm, a despair or falls aside, it will not have the flexibility to supply any important rainfall,” Kottlowski defined. “Nonetheless, if Eta have been to take care of a powerful circulation, it might carry a number of inches and potential flooding to components of the southeastern U.S.”
Eta might work together with a chilly entrance that’s forecast to dip into the area on the finish of the week, doubtlessly enhancing rainfall, based on Kottlowski.
The system’s energy will even decide the extent and depth of winds and storm surge because the system nears the shoreline and pushes ashore.
There’s additionally one other situation the place Eta might slowly wither away over the Gulf of Mexico late this week to this weekend after an preliminary interval of strengthening. On this case, the storm won’t make a second U.S. landfall in any respect and would as an alternative diminish in a zone of dry air and growing wind shear.
Forecasters are urging residents in the USA who reside alongside Florida’s west coast to southeastern Louisiana to observe the progress of Eta as a result of potential for flooding rain, robust winds and storm surge late this week and into this weekend.
Report-tying Eta, the 28th named storm of the season, is not alone within the basin. Subtropical Storm Theta shaped over the central Atlantic late Monday night, setting a brand new file for the Atlantic. Theta turned the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, beating out 2005 for essentially the most storms to ever develop in a single season. And the 2 storms collectively — Eta and Theta — turned the newest storm duo to churn within the Atlantic since Nov. 10, 1932, based on Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State meteorologist.
The Atlantic might not cease with Theta as AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the Caribbean for extra tropical exercise late this week and this weekend. Ought to an space of disturbed climate getting into the Caribbean attain tropical storm standing and turn out to be the 30th such storm of 2020, it might be named Iota.
AccuWeather meteorologists consider the tropical Atlantic might stay lively by means of the official finish of hurricane season, which is Nov. 30, and there may be even the opportunity of tropical exercise within the basin throughout December.